Hobaneng ha litheko tsa PVC Raw Material li ntse li phahama ka 2026? Tlhahlobo e sebetsang bakeng sa libapali tsa indasteri
Hobaneng ha litheko tsa PVC Raw Material li ntse li phahama ka 2026? Tlhahlobo e sebetsang bakeng sa libapali tsa indasteri
Haeba o le PVC-indasteri e amanang le bona - ho sa tsotellehe hore na u moetsi, mookameli oa phumants'o, kapa mong'a khoebo joaloka rona Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd{3}} mohlomong u utloile bohloko morao tjena. Ho tloha ka Hlakubele 2026, litheko tsa thepa e tala ea PVC li ntse li nyoloha ka sekhahla se neng se e-so ka se bonoa, 'me ha se feela phetoho e sa reroang ea mmaraka. Kajeno, ke tla hlakola mabaka a 'nete a bakang ho phahama ha theko ena, ka data e tiileng le mohopolo oa indasteri, ho u thusa ho utloisisa se etsahalang le hore na u ka arabela joang.
Taba ea pele, ha re bueng ka taba: ethylene{{0}PVC e thehiloeng ho ethylene e tlotse ka holimo ho 26%, le calcium carbide{{2}based PVC ka hoo e ka bang 24% libekeng tse seng kae. Bakeng sa Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., e shebaneng le thepa ea ho awning le lesela la papatso (ka bobeli li itšetlehile haholo ka PVC), sena se bolela litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa tlhahiso le liqeto tse thata tsa theko. Empa ho sebetsana le sefefo sena, re hloka ho tseba pelehobanengho etsahala.
1. The Core Driver: Litšenyehelo Khatello Ho Tsoa Mahlakoreng a mabeli
Tlhahiso ea China ea PVC e laoloa ke mokhoa oa calcium carbide (ho feta 80% ea kakaretso ea matla), 'me mokhoa oa ethylene o etsa tse ling kaofela. Litsela tsena ka bobeli li tobane le keketseho ea litheko tse kholo, 'me lintlha ke tsena:
Bakeng sa calcium carbide{{0}based PVC: Theko ea calcium carbide, e leng thepa ea bohlokoa, e lula e nyoloha. Ka la 16 Hlakubele, theko ea tekanyo ea calcium carbide e fihlile ho li-yuan tse 2,486/ton, 'me libaka tse ling li bile tsa fihla ho 2,910 yuan/ton. Ho na le mabaka a mabeli a ka sehloohong a molato: ho phahama ha theko ea mashala a mocheso (e leng ho phahamisa litšenyehelo tsa matla bakeng sa tlhahiso ea khalsiamo carbide) le tlhahlobo e matla ea tikoloho le polokeho libakeng tse kholo tse hlahisang tse kang Inner Mongolia le Shaanxi, tse fokolitseng matla a tlhahiso le ho tiisa phepelo.
Bakeng sa ethylene{{0}PVC e thehiloeng ho ethylene: Bothata bo tsoa 'marakeng oa machaba oa oli e tala. Ka la 28 Hlakola, US le Israel li ile tsa qala tlhaselo ea sesole Iran, 'me Iran ea arabela ka ho thibela Strait of Hormuz - tsela e mahlonoko e tsamaisang 20% ea khoebo ea oli ea lefats'e. Litheko tsa Brent crude li kile tsa nyolohela ka holimo ho $118/barrel, 'me sena se ile sa phahamisa litheko tsa ethylene ka kotloloho. Chaena Bochabela, litheko tsa ethylene li ile tsa phahama ka holimo ho 45% ka libeke tse peli feela, ho tloha ho 6,000 yuan/ton ho ea ho 8,800-10,000 yuan/ton. Ho tloha ka la 16 Hlakubele, bokamoso ba PVC le bona bo hoeba ka matla ho 5,831 yuan/ton, ka keketseho ea 4.97% ka letsatsi le le leng, ho bonts'a tšabo ea 'maraka mabapi le litšenyehelo tse ntseng li phahama.
2. Tight Supply: The "Amplifier" ea Ho phahama ha Theko
Khatello ea litšenyehelo ke eona mokhanni ea ka sehloohong, empa phepelo e thata e mpefalitse boemo. Ha re shebeng data:
Ka lapeng, sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ea indasteri ea PVC se theohetse ho 78.49% ka Hlakubele ka lebaka la tlhokomelo e tloaelehileng ea selemo ke likhoebo tse kholo. Ho feta moo, ha ho na bokhoni bo bocha bo eketsoang ka 2026, 'me matla a khale a tlhahiso a ntse a felisoa, kahoo sekhahla sa kholo ea phepelo ea selemo le selemo se ka tlase ho 1%. Ka mose ho maoatle, lintho li mpefala le ho feta: lithane tse fetang limilione tse 2 tsa matla a PVC li koetsoe Europe, Japane le US ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa matla le khatello ea tikoloho, e leng se ekelitseng tlhoko ea thepa ea kantle ea China ea PVC.
3. Tlhokahalo e Bonolo ea Tlhokahalo: "Ts'ehetso" ka morao ho Leeto
Ho fapana le ho nyoloha ha litheko tsa nakong e fetileng ho susumetsoang ke litšenyehelo feela, lekhetlong lena ho boetse ho na le pholiso e bonolo ea tlhokeho e fanang ka tšehetso. Ka lebaka la maano a China a kholiso e tsitsitseng, leano la "kabo e tiisitsoeng ea matlo" le merero e potlakileng ea meralo ea motheo e phahamisitse tlhokahalo ea liphaephe tsa PVC le litlaleho. Qetellong ea Hlakola, sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ea lipeipi tsa PVC le likhoebo tsa boemo bo nyolohetse ho 62%, e leng keketseho ea liperesente tse 11-ho tloha bofelong ba kotara ea bone ea 2025.
Tlhokahalo ea mose ho maoatle le eona e ntse e eketseha. Haufinyane India e hlakotse setifikeiti sa BIS le{1}}khahlanong le{1}}mesebetsi ea ho lahlela thepa ho China PVC, 'me ka lebaka la ho koaleha ha matla mose ho maoatle, PVC ea China e se e le tlholisano-ho feta. Ho hakanngoa hore thepa ea kantle ea China ea PVC e tla hola ka 20% selemong sena, e thusang ho monya litheko tsa lehae le litheko. Bakeng sa lik'hamphani tse kang tsa rona ho Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., kholo ena ea kantle ho naha e boetse e tlisa menyetla e mecha har'a khatello ea litšenyehelo.
4. See se Bolela Eng ho Rōna? (Keletso e sebetsang)
Joalo ka motho ea sebetsang indastering - le ea buang ho tsoa phihlelong ea Hubei Jinlong - ho tsamaisa theko ena ho hloka tlhahlobo e khutsitseng, eseng ho tšoha. Bahlahlobisisi ba re mokhoa oa nakong e tlang oa litheko o ipapisitse le lintho tse peli: tsitsipano ea tikoloho ea Middle East le metsamao ea litheko tsa oli e tala. Haeba likhohlano li fokotseha 'me litheko tsa oli li theoha, litheko tsa thepa e tala ea PVC li ka lokisa; empa haeba khohlano e tsoela pele kapa taolo ea tikoloho e thatafala, litheko li tla lula li le holimo.
Bakeng sa likhoebo tse kang Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., litlhahiso tse 'maloa tse sebetsang ke tsena: Taba ea pele, ela hloko liphetoho tsa mebaraka, haholo-holo litheko tsa oli e tala le calcium carbide, ho qoba ho reka ka bofofu. Taba ea bobeli, ntlafatsa mekhoa ea ho reka - ka mohlala, ho notlela likonteraka tsa nako e telele-ho tsitsisa litjeho, joalo ka ha likhoebo tse ling tse etelletseng pele li entse ho notlela litšenyehelo nakong ea halofo ea pele ea 2026. Taba ea boraro, fetola merero ea tlhahiso ka nepo, tsepamisa maikutlo ho -boleng bo phahameng{7}}me u fokotse litlamorao tsa theko e phahameng.
Ka bokhuts'oanyane, ho phahama hona ha litheko tsa PVC ha se nako e khuts'oane-"speculative bubble" - ke motsoako oa likhohlano tsa tikoloho, khatello ea litjeho, phepelo e thata, le tlhokomeliso e bobebe. Ho rona bohle indastering, ho utloisisa bakhanni bana ke mohato oa pele oa ho phela le ho atleha 'marakeng ona o sa tsitsang. Rona ba Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd. re ntse re lokisa maano a rona ho ikamahanya le liphetoho tsa 'maraka, 'me re tla tsoelapele ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho faneng ka-lihlahisoa tsa boleng bo holimo ha re ntse re laola likotsi tsa litšenyehelo ka katleho.